Storm Chase May 2017 - Tornado Alley Here I Come

Flying from Heathrow to Dallas on Monday 8th May 2017, landing early evening. I will be one of three drivers on tour 1 of the Netweather Storm Chase in 2017. First chase day proper will be Wednesday 10th May and will not have too far to go for chase opportunities.

A storm system or upper low will move east from California over the SW deserts and emerge over the southern Plains by mid-week. The cooling mid-levels as the upper low approaches atop a warm moist southerly surface flow that has been in place for several days will generate strong surface-based instability with surface heating. The strengthening SWly flow aloft ahead of the approaching low from the west and backed surface flow will generate sufficient wind shear for supercells that will likely form along a dry line mixing east from New Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Centre day 3 has a Marginal Risk of severe storms on Tuesday across eastern NM, western TX, eastern CO - but we won't make this risk. But as of Sunday's 4-8 day outlook already have a 15% risk area just NW of Dallas Metroplex across NW Texas and western Oklahoma on Wednesday. Then on Thursday the risk shifts east with the eastward-moving low pressure system, with far NE texas, far SE Oklahoma and much of Arkansas under the gun on SPC day 5 outlook 15% risk area.

 

So once the last guest has landed Tuesday afternoon, I think the plan is head NW up highway 287 (or referred by some chasers as the Highway to Heaven!) and perhaps stay somewhere like Witchita Falls in NW Texas. We are then in the general area for Wednesday severe storm risk, though the area of best potential may change a bit by then, but SPC mention 'all severe hazards' which includes tornadoes, but I will look more closely on the potential nearer the time. Then I guess we'll be heading east for Thursday towards or into Arkansas for the severe storm risk.

Beyond Thursday, the severe storms will shift further east still, perhaps east of the Mississippi River across the Dixie States (LA, MS,AL,GA) - but this will probably be too far east to go for us, bearing in mind subsequent risks over the weekend may develop way to the northwest over the central and northern High Plains - as the next upper trough arrives over the Mountain West from the Pacific weekend of the 13/14th and early following week commencing 15th.

CIAO for now, and talk again once I'm state side.